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Apr 26, 2024

Labor Day Gas Surge? Prices Near Record Weekend—And Experts Warn They Could Keep Climbing

The national average price of a gallon of gas in the U.S. heading into the Labor Day weekend neared a record high for the holiday weekend, according to data from the Energy Information Administration,

The national average price of a gallon of gas in the U.S. heading into the Labor Day weekend neared a record high for the holiday weekend, according to data from the Energy Information Administration, though experts are torn on where prices are heading as the hurricane season and high weekend demand throw a curveball at the price drivers pay at the pump.

Gas prices are just one cent shy of last year's Labor Day price, on average.

The national average gas price hit $3.83 on Thursday, according to data from AAA, just one cent below the price drivers paid, on average, last year—a record gas price for the busy holiday weekend, tying the previous record set in 2012, according to EIA data.

Prices are highest in California, a historically expensive state for gas, at $5.30, followed by Washington ($5.11), Hawaii ($4.80), Oregon ($4.76), Alaska ($4.62) and Nevada ($4.52), according to AAA, while drivers can find the lowest prices, on average, in Mississippi ($3.31), Louisiana ($3.38) and Arkansas ($3.41).

GasBuddy head petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan said in a post on X that he believes motorists can “see some downdrafts” in prices for most parts of the U.S., with six states seeing drops of at least 25 cents per gallon from this time last year, including Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Indiana, Vermont and Massachusetts.

Andrew Gross, a spokesperson for AAA, however, said in a blog post he believes a turbulent oil market coupled with soaring weekend demand could lead to a spike in prices at the pump, warning that “potential storm activity” on the East Coast could create volatile oil prices “particularly during an active hurricane season,” as a series of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes hinder oil production primarily in the Gulf of Mexico.

Over the past five days, the West Texas Intermediate—a national crude oil benchmark—shot up more than 4.5% to a two-week high of just under $83, just as the hurricane season starts to heat up, with Hurricane Idalia making landfall in Florida on Wednesday as a Category 3 major hurricane, causing widespread flooding and storm damage.

Analysts with the Energy Information Administration also expect an increase in gas prices, following a steady climb in gas prices over the summer due to a slew of factors including low gasoline inventories, scheduled oil refinery maintenance and oil production cuts by oil giant Saudi Arabia, which announced plans in June to lower production by 1 million barrels a day.

Despite a 35 cent uptick in the national average gas price since early July, the EIA estimates that prices are still roughly 4% lower than they were at this time last year when adjusting for inflation, a difference of roughly 14 cents.

Hurricane Idalia, which has since downgraded into a tropical storm after traversing northern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, brought gas stations in Florida to a standstill as it barreled through the Sunshine State, with nearly 5% of stations in Gainesville without gas, another 4% without it in Fort Myers and Naples and roughly 2.6% without gas in Tampa and St. Petersburg, according to GasBuddy.

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